Jerusalem -- A report for Defense Secretary Robert Gates has determined that Iraq's stability was being threatened from an Arab-Kurdish war in the oil-rich area of Kirkuk.

The report by the Rand Corporation, a research and analysis company that helps "improve policy and decision-making," urged the United States to maintain its troops through 2010 to prevent such a conflict.

"The greatest danger arises from the tension between the Iraqi?government and the quasi-independent Kurdish northern portion of the?country," Rand reported.

The report, titled "Withdrawing from Iraq: Alternative Schedules,?Associated Risks, and Mitigating Strategies," recommended a slowdown in the?U.S. military withdrawal in the Kirkuk and other contested areas in northern?Iraq. President Barack Obama has pledged to withdraw all combat units by?August 2010.?

"Drawing down these forces is based on a complex combination of factors,?some dealing with the need for continued support to the Iraqi forces, as?well as the need to secure remaining U.S. forces," Walt Perry, lead author?of the report, said. "It's also understood that commanders will need to make?schedule judgments based on the security situation and other conditions that?could influence the withdrawal."?

The report said the Iraq Army would meet a powerful Kurdish force in the?north. Rand envisioned that Kurdish units would defect from the?Baghdad-controlled military during any conflict.?

"The [Kurdish] Peshmerga are a capable army by regional standards, and?their heavy-equipment holdings could grow, especially if the Iraqi Army were to?split along ethnic lines," the report said. "At the same time, the [Israeli Security Forces] ISF are?increasingly capable of conducting demanding operations. Thus, ample forces?exist on both sides for large-scale Arab-Kurdish hostilities."?

The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) has been concerned over Iraq's military?buildup. The report said a key threat determined by KRG was Baghdad's effort?to procure the U.S.-origin F-16 multi-role fighter from Lockheed Martin.?

"The secession of the KRG from Iraq could lead to ethnic cleansing, as?many Kurds live outside the KRG's area of control and some Arab Iraqis live?within it," the report said. "Turkey, Iran, and Syria would strongly oppose?any KRG moves toward independence."?

The Rand Corporation, a leading consultant to the Pentagon, urged the Obama?administration to maintain U.S. combat forces to ensure a peaceful Iraqi?election in January 2010. The report, released in July 2009, envisioned the?prospect that Obama could advance his troop withdrawal deadline to May 2010.?

"To ensure that Iraq has a peaceful national election in January, it is?important that a sufficient U.S. force remains in place until the election?is completed and the new government seated," Perry said. "So the number of?forces that are withdrawn leading up to the elections must balance the need?to provide security and demonstrate to the Iraqi people that the United?States is, in fact, withdrawing its forces."?

Under the current withdrawal schedule, the report said the U.S.?military would lose its ability to protect Iraq after April 2010. The?remaining force would be limited to protect the U.S. presence in Iraq.

Another scenario was for the U.S. administration to maintain combat units?until December 2011, when all U.S. forces were scheduled to leave Iraq. The?scenario envisioned threats by al- Qaida, Iranian-backed Shi'ite insurgents?and even an Iraqi military coup.?

"A politicized Iraqi security force may stage a coup or may be used by?the Iraqi government to crush political rivals," the report said.

By David Bedein
www.thebulletin.us